Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?

Goodwin, Paul, Önkal, Dilek and Thomson, Mary (2010) Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions? European Journal of Operational Research, 205 (1). pp. 195-201. ISSN 0377-2217

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2009.12.020

Abstract

A number of studies have shown that providing point forecasts to decision makers can lead to improved production planning decisions. However, point forecasts do not convey information about the level of uncertainty that is associated with forecasts. In theory, the provision of prediction intervals, in addition to point forecasts, should therefore lead to further enhancements in decision quality. To test whether this is the case in practice, participants in an experiment were asked to decide on the production levels that were needed to meet the following week’s demand for a series of products. Either underproduction cost twice as much per unit as overproduction or vice versa. The participants were supplied with either a point forecast, a 50% prediction interval, or a 95% prediction interval for the following week’s demand. The prediction intervals did not improve the quality of the decisions and also reduced the propensity of the decision makers to respond appropriately to the asymmetry in the loss function. A simple heuristic is suggested to allow people to make more effective use of prediction intervals. It is found that applying this heuristic to 85% prediction intervals would lead to nearly optimal decisions.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Forecasting, prediction intervals, decision making, asymmetric loss
Subjects: G200 Operational Research
N900 Others in Business and Administrative studies
Department: Faculties > Business and Law > Newcastle Business School > Business and Management
Depositing User: Ay Okpokam
Date Deposited: 08 Oct 2013 13:20
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2015 11:04
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/13823

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