Evaluating the No Cold Calling zones in Peterborough, England: application of a novel statistical method for evaluating neighbourhood policing policies

Li, Guangquan, Haining, Robert, Richardson, Sylvia and Best, Nicky (2013) Evaluating the No Cold Calling zones in Peterborough, England: application of a novel statistical method for evaluating neighbourhood policing policies. Environment and Planning A, 45 (8). pp. 2012-2026. ISSN 0308-518X

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a45374

Abstract

Some police forces in the UK institute ‘No Cold Calling’ (NCC) zones to reduce cold callings (unsolicited visits to sell products or services), which are often associated with rogue trading and distraction burglary. This paper evaluates the NCC-targeted areas chosen in 2005–06 in Peterborough and reports whether they experienced a measurable impact on their burglary rates in the period up to 2008. Time-series data for burglary at the census output area level are analysed using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to address issues of data sparsity and lack of randomised allocation of areas to treatment groups that are often encountered in small-area quantitative policy evaluation. To ensure internal validity, we employ the interrupted time-series quasi-experimental design embedded within a matched case-control framework. Results reveal a positive impact of NCC zones on reducing burglary rates in the targeted areas compared with the control areas.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: policy evaluation, neighbourhood policing, time series data, interrupted time series analysis, Bayesian hierarchical models
Subjects: G100 Mathematics
L300 Sociology
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Mathematics and Information Sciences
Depositing User: Becky Skoyles
Date Deposited: 11 Mar 2014 12:32
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2015 11:10
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/15704

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