Heartbeat of the sun from principal component analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

Zharkova, Valentina, Shepherd, Simon, Popova, Elena and Zharkov, Sergei (2015) Heartbeat of the sun from principal component analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. Scientific Reports, 5. p. 15689. ISSN 2045-2322

[img]
Preview
Text (Article)
Zharkova_heartbeat of the sun.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (1MB) | Preview
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep15689

Abstract

We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21-24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26-27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α - Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350-400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Creative Commons Attribution 4 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Subjects: F300 Physics
F500 Astronomy
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Physics and Electrical Engineering
Depositing User: Nicola King
Date Deposited: 05 Nov 2015 11:42
Last Modified: 17 Mar 2016 09:34
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/24329

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics


Policies: NRL Policies | NRL University Deposit Policy | NRL Deposit Licence