Environmental predictors of stunting among children under-five in Somalia: cross-sectional studies from 2007 to 2010

Kinyoki, Damaris, Berkley, James, Moloney, Grainne, Odundo, Elijah, Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin and Noor, Abdisalan (2016) Environmental predictors of stunting among children under-five in Somalia: cross-sectional studies from 2007 to 2010. BMC Public Health, 16 (1). p. 654. ISSN 1471-2458

[img]
Preview
Text
art%3A10.1186%2Fs12889-016-3320-6.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (1MB) | Preview
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-3320-6

Abstract

Background - Stunting among children under five years old is associated with long-term effects on cognitive development, school achievement, economic productivity in adulthood and maternal reproductive outcomes. Accurate estimation of stunting and tools to forecast risk are key to planning interventions. We estimated the prevalence and distribution of stunting among children under five years in Somalia from 2007 to 2010 and explored the role of environmental covariates in its forecasting.

Methods - Data from household nutritional surveys in Somalia from 2007 to 2010 with a total of 1,066 clusters covering 73,778 children were included. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model to forecast stunting by using the relationship between observed stunting and environmental covariates in the preceding years. We then applied the model coefficients to environmental covariates in subsequent years. To determine the accuracy of the forecasting, we compared this model with a model that used data from all the years with the corresponding environmental covariates.

Results - Rainfall (OR = 0.994, 95 % Credible interval (CrI): 0.993, 0.995) and vegetation cover (OR = 0.719, 95 % CrI: 0.603, 0.858) were significant in forecasting stunting. The difference in estimates of stunting using the two approaches was less than 3 % in all the regions for all forecast years.

Conclusion - Stunting in Somalia is spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Rainfall and vegetation are major drivers of these variations. The use of environmental covariates for forecasting of stunting is a potentially useful and affordable tool for planning interventions to reduce the high burden of malnutrition in Somalia.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Malnutrition, Stunting, Somalia, Forecasting
Subjects: G300 Statistics
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Mathematics and Information Sciences
Depositing User: Becky Skoyles
Date Deposited: 11 Aug 2016 13:23
Last Modified: 15 May 2017 07:52
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/27545

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics


Policies: NRL Policies | NRL University Deposit Policy | NRL Deposit Licence