Sample size considerations for the external validation of a multivariable prognostic model: a resampling study

Collins, Gary, Ogundimu, Emmanuel and Altman, Douglas (2016) Sample size considerations for the external validation of a multivariable prognostic model: a resampling study. Statistics in Medicine, 35 (2). pp. 214-226. ISSN 0277-6715

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.6787

Abstract

After developing a prognostic model, it is essential to evaluate the performance of the model in samples independent from those used to develop the model, which is often referred to as external validation. However, despite its importance, very little is known about the sample size requirements for conducting an external validation. Using a large real data set and resampling methods, we investigate the impact of sample size on the performance of six published prognostic models. Focussing on unbiased and precise estimation of performance measures (e.g. the c‐index, D statistic and calibration), we provide guidance on sample size for investigators designing an external validation study. Our study suggests that externally validating a prognostic model requires a minimum of 100 events and ideally 200 (or more) events.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: prognostic model, sample size, external validation
Subjects: G300 Statistics
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering
Depositing User: Becky Skoyles
Date Deposited: 25 May 2018 12:01
Last Modified: 31 May 2018 18:45
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/34373

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