Estimating the time since discharge of spent cartridges: A logical approach for interpreting the evidence

Gallidabino, Matteo, Weyermann, Céline, Romolo, Francesco and Taroni, Franco (2013) Estimating the time since discharge of spent cartridges: A logical approach for interpreting the evidence. Science & Justice, 53 (1). pp. 41-48. ISSN 1355-0306

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2011.12.004

Abstract

Estimating the time since discharge of a spent cartridge or a firearm can be useful in criminal situations involving firearms. The analysis of volatile gunshot residue remaining after shooting using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by gas chromatography (GC) was proposed to meet this objective. However, current interpretative models suffer from several conceptual drawbacks which render them inadequate to assess the evidential value of a given measurement. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a logical approach based on the assessment of likelihood ratios. A probabilistic model was thus developed and applied to a hypothetical scenario where alternative hypotheses about the discharge time of a spent cartridge found on a crime scene were forwarded. In order to estimate the parameters required to implement this solution, a non-linear regression model was proposed and applied to real published data. The proposed approach proved to be a valuable method for interpreting aging-related data.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Forensic science, Gunshot residue, Dating, Time since discharge, Interpretation, Likelihood ratio
Subjects: F400 Forensic and Archaeological Science
Department: Faculties > Health and Life Sciences > Applied Sciences
Depositing User: Becky Skoyles
Date Deposited: 21 Sep 2018 12:05
Last Modified: 11 Oct 2019 06:34
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/35867

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