Using Scenarios to Forecast Outcomes of a Refugee Crisis

Wicke, Lars, Dhami, Mandeep, Önkal, Dilek and Belton, Ian (2019) Using Scenarios to Forecast Outcomes of a Refugee Crisis. International Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0169-2070 (In Press)

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.017

Abstract

The Syrian civil war has led to millions of Syrians fleeing the country, and has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. By considering how such socio-political events may unfold, scenarios can lead to informed forecasts that can be used for decision-making. We examined the relationship between scenarios and forecasts in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis. Forty Turkish students trained to use a brainstorming technique generated scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. Participants generated from 3-6 scenarios. Over half were rated as ‘high’ quality in terms of completeness, relevance/pertinence, plausibility, coherence, and transparency (order effects). Scenario quality was unaffected by scenario quantity. Even though no forecasts were requested, participants’ first scenarios contained from 0-17 forecasts. Mean forecast accuracy was 45% and this was unaffected by forecast quantity. Therefore, brainstorming can offer a simple and quick way of generating scenarios and forecasts that can potentially help decision-makers tackle humanitarian crises.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Scenario generation, Forecasting, Brainstorming, Refugees, Humanitarian crisis
Subjects: L900 Others in Social studies
N900 Others in Business and Administrative studies
Department: Faculties > Business and Law > Newcastle Business School
Depositing User: Becky Skoyles
Date Deposited: 31 May 2019 08:31
Last Modified: 19 Nov 2019 09:45
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/39428

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