Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale

Zharkova, Valentina, Shepherd, S. J., Zharkov, S. I. and Popova, E. (2019) Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale. Scientific Reports, 9 (1). p. 9197. ISSN 2045-2322

[img]
Preview
Text
s41598-019-45584-3.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (2MB) | Preview
[img]
Preview
Text
Zharkova et al - Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale AAM.pdf - Accepted Version

Download (2MB) | Preview
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45584-3

Abstract

Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019-2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1−1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350-400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. In addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a period of 1950±95 years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at 2600 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at 3700. These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system and closely linked to an increase of solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in the past two centuries. This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5◦C by 2600.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: F300 Physics
F500 Astronomy
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering
Depositing User: Paul Burns
Date Deposited: 06 Jun 2019 10:33
Last Modified: 11 Oct 2019 09:45
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/39526

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics


Policies: NRL Policies | NRL University Deposit Policy | NRL Deposit Licence