The effects of scenarios on judgmental demand forecasts and the subsequent production decisions

Gonul, Sinan, Goodwin, Paul and Önkal, Dilek (2019) The effects of scenarios on judgmental demand forecasts and the subsequent production decisions. In: ISF 2019 - 39th International Symposium on Forecasting, 16th - 19th June 2019, Thessaloniki, Greece.

[img]
Preview
Text (Presentation slides)
Gonul et al - The effects of scenarios on judgmental demand forecasts PRESENTATION.pdf - Presentation

Download (2MB) | Preview

Abstract

In production planning and inventory management activities, demand forecasts play a crucial role by shaping the decisions of how many to produce from different products subject to a fixed total capacity restriction. Such demand predictions can be supported by the presence of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios that provide a vibrant narrative to envisage the future. In this paper, through an experimental study, we are investigating i) the effects of providing only time-series information on the generation of judgmental demand forecasts and the subsequent production order decisions and ii) the interaction of presenting optimistic and pessimistic scenarios with this forecast generation and ordering process. The experimental design involved three between subject groups: i) only time-series information, no scenarios ii) time series information accompanied with weak optimistic and pessimistic scenarios iii) time series information accompanied with strong optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Findings are disclosed and directions for future extensions are suggested.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: N200 Management studies
Department: Faculties > Business and Law > Newcastle Business School
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Paul Burns
Date Deposited: 22 Jul 2019 11:02
Last Modified: 19 Nov 2019 09:46
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/40114

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics


Policies: NRL Policies | NRL University Deposit Policy | NRL Deposit Licence