Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Baldini, Lisa M., Baldini, James U. L., McElwaine, Jim N., Frappier, Amy Benoit, Asmerom, Yemane, Liu, Kam-biu, Prufer, Keith M., Ridley, Harriet E., Polyak, Victor, Kennett, Douglas J., Macpherson, Colin G., Aquino, Valorie V., Awe, Jaime and Breitenbach, Sebastian (2016) Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries. Scientific Reports, 6 (1). ISSN 2045-2322

[img]
Preview
Text
srep37522.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (3MB) | Preview
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522

Abstract

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Governance, Natural hazards, Palaeoclimate
Subjects: F600 Geology
F700 Ocean Sciences
F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences
F900 Others in Physical Sciences
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Geography and Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Rachel Branson
Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2020 09:26
Last Modified: 20 Feb 2020 09:30
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/42146

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics