A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly

Smirnov, D. A., Breitenbach, Sebastian, Feulner, G., Lechleitner, F. A., Prufer, K. M., Baldini, J. U. L., Marwan, N. and Kurths, J. (2017) A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Scientific Reports, 7 (1). ISSN 2045-2322

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11340-8

Abstract

Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth’s climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000–1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000–1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ITCZ, Central America, medieval climate anomaly, stalagmite, Wiener-Granger causality
Subjects: F600 Geology
F700 Ocean Sciences
F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences
F900 Others in Physical Sciences
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Geography and Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Rachel Branson
Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2020 11:39
Last Modified: 20 Feb 2020 11:45
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/42154

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