Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Davies, Nicholas G., Abbott, Sam, Barnard, Rosanna C., Jarvis, Christopher I., Kucharski, Adam J., Munday, James D., Pearson, Carl A. B., Russell, Timothy W., Tully, Damien C., Washburne, Alex D., Wenseleers, Tom, Gimma, Amy, Waites, William, Wong, Kerry L. M., van Zandvoort, Kevin, Silverman, Justin D., Diaz-Ordaz, Karla, Keogh, Ruth, Eggo, Rosalind M., Funk, Sebastian, Jit, Mark, Atkins, Katherine E., Edmunds, W. John, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, , COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, , Bashton, Matthew, Smith, Darren, Young, Greg and Nelson, Andrew (2021) Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science, 372 (6538). eabg3055. ISSN 0036-8075

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The UK variant B.1.1.7 (also known as VOC 202012/01) has many mutations that alter virus attachment and entry into human cells. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, Davies et al. characterized the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in the United Kingdom. The authors found that the variant is 43 to 90% more transmissible than the predecessor lineage but saw no clear evidence for a change in disease severity, although enhanced transmission will lead to higher incidence and more hospital admissions. Large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur after the easing of control measures, and it may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to control the epidemic.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Matthew Bashton, Darren Smith, Greg Young and Andrew Nelson are the members of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium. See supplementary materials for list of consortium members and affiliations.
Subjects: B100 Anatomy, Physiology and Pathology
B900 Others in Subjects allied to Medicine
C700 Molecular Biology, Biophysics and Biochemistry
Department: Faculties > Health and Life Sciences > Applied Sciences
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Elena Carlaw
Date Deposited: 09 Mar 2021 16:13
Last Modified: 27 Apr 2021 08:01
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45653

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