Simulating Miocene warmth: insights from an opportunistic Multi‐Model ensemble (MioMIP1)

Burls, N. J., Bradshaw, C. D., De Boer, A. M., Herold, N., Huber, M., Pound, Matthew, Donnadieu, Y., Farnsworth, A., Frigola, A., Gasson, E., von der Heydt, A. S., Hutchinson, D. K., Knorr, G., Lawrenc, K. T., Lear, C. H., Li, X., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D. J., Marzocchi, A., Prange, M., Riihimaki, C. A., Sarr, A.‐C., Siler, N. and Zhang, Z. (2021) Simulating Miocene warmth: insights from an opportunistic Multi‐Model ensemble (MioMIP1). Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. ISSN 2572-4517

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020pa004054

Abstract

The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03‐5.33Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300‐600ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75‐14.5Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker‐than‐modern equator‐to‐pole temperature difference. Here we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model‐data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modelling efforts, and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO2, such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ∼ 2urn:x-wiley:25724517:media:palo21013:palo21013-math-0001, with the spread in warming under a given CO2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ∼1.2 times a CO2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference datasets represent the state‐of‐art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi‐model, multi‐proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress towards simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community‐led efforts to coordinate modelling and data activities within a common analysis framework.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: F400 Forensic and Archaeological Science
F600 Geology
F700 Ocean Sciences
F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Geography and Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Elena Carlaw
Date Deposited: 13 Apr 2021 15:23
Last Modified: 13 Apr 2021 15:30
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45912

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