A hierarchical, multivariate meta-analysis approach to synthesising global change experiments

Ogle, Kiona, Liu, Yao, Vicca, Sara and Bahn, Michael (2021) A hierarchical, multivariate meta-analysis approach to synthesising global change experiments. New Phytologist. ISSN 0028-646X (In Press)

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17562

Abstract

Meta-analyses enable synthesis of results from globally distributed experiments to draw general conclusions about the impacts of global change factors on ecosystem function. Traditional meta-analyses, however, are challenged by the complexity and diversity of experimental results. We illustrate how several key issues can be addressed via a multivariate, hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis (MHBM) approach applied to information extracted from published studies.
We applied an MHBM to log-response ratios for aboveground biomass (AB, n = 300), belowground biomass (BB, n = 205), and soil CO2 exchange (SCE, n = 544), representing 100 studies. The MHBM accounted for study duration, climate effects, and covariation among the AB, BB, and SCE responses to elevated CO2 (eCO2) and/or warming.
The MHBM revealed significant among-study covariation in the AB and BB responses to experimental treatments. The MHBM imputed missing duration (4.2%) and climate (6%) data, and revealed that climate context governs how eCO2 and warming impact ecosystem function. Predictions identified biomes that may be particularly sensitive to eCO2 or warming, but that are under-represented in global change experiments.
The MHBM approach offers a flexible and powerful tool for synthesizing disparate experimental results reported across multiple studies, sites, and response variables.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian meta-analysis, climatewarming, elevated CO2, global changeexperiments, hierarchical model, incompletereporting, multivariate meta-analysis.
Subjects: C100 Biology
F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Geography and Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Elena Carlaw
Date Deposited: 28 Jun 2021 07:38
Last Modified: 31 Jul 2021 10:02
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/46543

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