Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

Elliott, Paul, Haw, David, Wang, Haowei, Eales, Oliver, Walters, Caroline E., Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Atchison, Christina, Fronterre, Claudio, Diggle, Peter J., Page, Andrew J., Trotter, Alexander J., Prosolek, Sophie J., Ashby, Deborah, Donnelly, Christl A., Barclay, Wendy, Taylor, Graham, Cooke, Graham, Ward, Helen, Darzi, Ara, Riley, Steven, Robson, Samuel C, Loman, Nicholas J, Connor, Thomas R, Golubchik, Tanya, Martinez Nunez, Rocio T, Ludden, Catherine, Corden, Sally, Johnston, Ian, Bonsall, David, Smith, Colin P, Awan, Ali R, Bucca, Giselda, Torok, M. Estee, Saeed, Kordo, Prieto, Jacqui A, Jackson, David K, Hamilton, William L, Snell, Luke B, Moore, Catherine, Harrison, Ewan M, Goncalves, Sonia, Jackson, Leigh M, Goodfellow, Ian G, Fairley, Derek J, Loose, Matthew W, Watkins, Joanne, Livett, Rich, Moses, Samuel, Amato, Roberto, Nicholls, Sam, Bull, Matthew, Smith, Darren, Barrett, Jeff, Aanensen, David M, Curran, Martin D, Parmar, Surendra, Aggarwal, Dinesh, Shepherd, James G, Parker, Matthew D, Glaysher, Sharon, Bashton, Matthew, Underwood, Anthony P, Pacchiarini, Nicole, Loveson, Katie F, Carabelli, Alessandro M, Templeton, Kate E, Langford, Cordelia F, Sillitoe, John, de Silva, Thushan I, Wang, Dennis, Kwiatkowski, Dominic, Rambaut, Andrew, O’Grady, Justin, Cottrell, Simon, Holden, Matthew T.G., Thomson, Emma C, Osman, Husam, Andersson, Monique, Chauhan, Anoop J, Hassan-Ibrahim, Mohammed O, Lawniczak, Mara, Gupta, Ravi Kumar, Alderton, Alex, Chand, Meera, Constantinidou, Chrystala, Unnikrishnan, Meera, Darby, Alistair C, Hiscox, Julian A, Paterson, Steve, Martincorena, Inigo, Robertson, David L, Volz, Erik M, Page, Andrew J, Pybus, Oliver G, Bassett, Andrew R, Ariani, Cristina V, Spencer Chapman, Michael H, Li, Kathy K, Shah, Rajiv N, Jesudason, Natasha G, Taha, Yusri, McHugh, Martin P, Dewar, Rebecca, Jahun, Aminu S, McMurray, Claire, Pandey, Sarojini, McKenna, James P, Nelson, Andrew, Young, Greg, McCann, Clare, Elliott, Scott, Lowe, Hannah, Temperton, Ben, Roy, Sunando, Price, Anna, Rey, Sara, Wyles, Matthew, Rooke, Stefan, Shaaban, Sharif, de Cesare, Mariateresa, Letchford, Laura, Silveira, Siona, Pelosi, Emanuela, Wilson-Davies, Eleri, Hosmillo, Myra, O'Toole, Áine, Hesketh, Andrew R, Stark, Richard, du Plessis, Louis, Ruis, Chris, Adams, Helen, Bourgeois, Yann, Michell, Stephen L, Grammatopoulos, Dimitris, Edgeworth, Jonathan, Breuer, Judith, Todd, John A, Fraser, Christophe, Buck, David, John, Michaela, Kay, Gemma L, Palmer, Steve, Peacock, Sharon J, Heyburn, David, Weldon, Danni, Robinson, Esther, 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Khakh, Manjinder, Fleming, Vicki M, Lister, Michelle M, Howson-Wells, Hannah C, Berry, Louise, Boswell, Tim, Joseph, Amelia, Willingham, Iona, Duckworth, Nichola, Walsh, Sarah, Wise, Emma, Moore, Nathan, Mori, Matilde, Cortes, Nick, Kidd, Stephen, BMBS, Rebecca Williams, Gifford, Laura, Bicknell, Kelly, Wyllie, Sarah, Lloyd, Allyson, Impey, Robert, Malone, Cassandra S, Cogger, Benjamin J, Levene, Nick, Monaghan, Lynn, Keeley, Alexander J, Partridge, David G, Raza, Mohammad, Evans, Cariad, Johnson, Kate, Betteridge, Emma, Farr, Ben W, Goodwin, Scott, Quail, Michael A, Scott, Carol, Shirley, Lesley, Thurston, Scott AJ, Rajan, Diana, Bronner, Iraad F, Aigrain, Louise, Redshaw, Nicholas M, Lensing, Stefanie V, McCarthy, Shane, Makunin, Alex, Balcazar, Carlos E, Gallagher, Michael D, Williamson, Kathleen A, Stanton, Thomas D, Michelsen, Michelle L, Warwick-Dugdale, Joanna, Manley, Robin, Farbos, Audrey, Harrison, James W, Sambles, Christine M, Studholme, David J, Lackenby, Angie, Mbisa, Tamyo, Platt, Steven, Miah, Shahjahan, Bibby, David, Manso, Carmen, Hubb, Jonathan, Dabrera, Gavin, Ramsay, Mary, Bradshaw, Daniel, Schaefer, Ulf, Groves, Natalie, Gallagher, Eileen, Lee, David, Williams, David, Ellaby, Nicholas, Hartman, Hassan, Manesis, Nikos, Patel, Vineet, Ledesma, Juan, Twohig, Katherine A, Allara, Elias, Pearson, Clare, Cheng, Jeffrey K. J., Bridgewater, Hannah E, Frost, Lucy R, Taylor-Joyce, Grace, Brown, Paul E, Tong, Lily, Broos, Alice, Mair, Daniel, Nichols, Jenna, Carmichael, Stephen N, Smollett, Katherine L, Nomikou, Kyriaki, Aranday-Cortes, Elihu, Johnson, Natasha, Nickbakhsh, Seema, Vamos, Edith E, Hughes, Margaret, Rainbow, Lucille, Eccles, Richard, Nelson, Charlotte, Whitehead, Mark, Gregory, Richard, Gemmell, Matthew, Wierzbicki, Claudia, Webster, Hermione J, Fisher, Chloe L, Signell, Adrian W, Betancor, Gilberto, Wilson, Harry D, Nebbia, Gaia, Flaviani, Flavia, Cerda, Alberto C, Merrill, Tammy V, Wilson, Rebekah E, Cotic, Marius, Bayzid, Nadua, Thompson, Thomas, Acheson, Erwan, Rushton, Steven, O'Brien, Sarah, Baker, David J, Rudder, Steven, Aydin, Alp, Sang, Fei, Debebe, Johnny, Francois, Sarah, Vasylyeva, Tetyana I, Zamudio, Marina Escalera, Gutierrez, Bernardo, Marchbank, Angela, Maksimovic, Joshua, Spellman, Karla, McCluggage, Kathryn, Morgan, Mari, Beer, Robert, Afifi, Safiah, Workman, Trudy, Fuller, William, Bresner, Catherine, Angyal, Adrienn, Green, Luke R, Parsons, Paul J, Tucker, Rachel M, Brown, Rebecca, Whiteley, Max, Bonfield, James, Puethe, Christoph, Whitwham, Andrew, Liddle, Jennifier, Rowe, Will, Siveroni, Igor, Le-Viet, Thanh, Gaskin, Amy, Johnson, Rob and COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, (2021) Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant. Science. abl9551. ISSN 0036-8075 (In Press)

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abl9551

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Matthew Bashton, Darren L. Smith, Gregory R. Young, Clare McCann, Andrew Nelson and Wen Chyin Yew are member of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium. Funding information: The study was funded by the Department of Health and Social Care in England. Sequencing was provided through funding from the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium. P.E. is Director of the Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre for Environment and Health (MR/L01341X/1, MR/S019669/1). P.E. acknowledges support from Health Data Research UK (HDR UK); the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Biomedical Research Centre; NIHR Health Protection Research Units (HPRUs) in Chemical and Radiation Threats and Hazards, and Environmental Exposures and Health; the British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence at Imperial College London (RE/18/4/34215); and the UK Dementia Research Institute at Imperial (MC_PC_17114). S.R., C.A.D. acknowledge support: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, NIHR HPRU in Modelling and Health Economics, Wellcome Trust (200861/Z/16/Z, 200187/Z/15/Z), and Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (US, U01CK0005-01-02). G.C. is supported by an NIHR Professorship. H.War. acknowledges support from an NIHR Senior Investigator Award and the Wellcome Trust (205456/Z/16/Z). We thank The Huo Family Foundation for their support of our work on COVID-19. Quadram authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC); their research was funded by the BBSRC Institute Strategic Programme Microbes in the Food Chain BB/R012504/1 and its constituent project BBS/E/F/000PR10352. We thank members of the COVID-19 Genomics Consortium UK (COG-UK) for their contributions to generating the genomic data used in this study. COG-UK is supported by funding from the MRC, part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), NIHR and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute.
Subjects: B900 Others in Subjects allied to Medicine
C500 Microbiology
C700 Molecular Biology, Biophysics and Biochemistry
Department: Faculties > Health and Life Sciences > Applied Sciences
Depositing User: John Coen
Date Deposited: 18 Nov 2021 15:57
Last Modified: 19 Nov 2021 14:07
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47783

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