Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users’ reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility

Önkal, Dilek, Sinan Gönül, M., Goodwin, Paul, Thomson, Mary and Öz, Esra (2017) Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users’ reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility. International Journal of Forecasting, 33 (1). pp. 280-297. ISSN 0169-2070

Onkal_International_Journal_of_Forecasting.pdf - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0.

Download (705kB) | Preview
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.12.009


In expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for forecasting, the perceived credibility of an expert is likely to affect the weighting attached to their advice. Four experiments have investigated the extent to which the implicit weighting depends on the advisor’s experienced (reflecting the accuracy of their past forecasts), or presumed (based on their status) credibility. Compared to a control group, advice from a source with a high experienced credibility received a greater weighting, but having a low level of experienced credibility did not reduce the weighting. In contrast, a high presumed credibility did not increase the weighting relative to a control group, while a low presumed credibility decreased it. When there were opportunities for the two types of credibility to interact, a high experienced credibility tended to eclipse the presumed credibility if the advisees were non-experts. However, when the advisees were professionals, both the presumed and experienced credibility of the advisor were influential in determining the weight attached to the advice.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Source credibility; Presumed credibility; Experienced credibility; Advice; Forecasting; Information use
Subjects: N100 Business studies
Department: Faculties > Business and Law > Newcastle Business School
Depositing User: Ellen Cole
Date Deposited: 10 May 2016 08:13
Last Modified: 31 Jul 2021 21:45
URI: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/26764

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item


Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics