Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Gönül, Sinan, Önkal, Dilek and Goodwin, Paul (2008) Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation. Journal of Forecasting, 28 (1). pp. 19-37. ISSN 0277-6693

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Abstract

A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts, the provision of a clear justifiable rationale and accuracy. Cost was less important. Forecasts were frequently adjusted when they lacked a justifiable explanation, when the user felt they could integrate their knowledge into the forecast, or where the user perceived a need to take responsibility for the forecast. Forecasts were less frequently adjusted when they came from a well-known source and were based on sound explanations and assumptions. The presence of feedback on accuracy reduced the influence of these factors. The seniority and experience of users had little effect on their attitudes or propensity to make adjustments.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Forecast quality, Forecast source, Judgmental adjustments
Subjects:	G500 Information Systems N200 Management studies
Department:	Faculties > Business and Law > Newcastle Business School
Depositing User:	Paul Burns
Date Deposited:	08 Jan 2018 11:56
Last Modified:	19 Nov 2019 09:54
URI:	http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/33027

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