Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Goodwin, Paul, Gönül, Sinan and Önkal, Dilek (2013) Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice. International Journal of Forecasting, 29 (2). pp. 354-366. ISSN 0169-2070

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Abstract

Forecasting support systems (FSSs) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: (i) factors that influence the levels of users' stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of interval forecasts, (ii) the extent to which stated trust is associated with users' modifications of the provided forecasts, and (iii) the consequences of these modifications for the calibration of the interval forecasts. Stated trust was influenced by the levels of noise in time series and whether a trend was present but was unaffected by the presence or absence of point forecasts. It was also higher when the intervals were framed as 'best-case/worst-case' forecasts and when the FSS provided explanations. Absence of trust was associated with a tendency to narrow the provided prediction intervals, which reduced their calibration.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Judgmental forecasting; Advice; Stated trust; Adjusting forecasts
Subjects:	C800 Psychology N100 Business studies
Department:	Faculties > Business and Law > Newcastle Business School
Depositing User:	Paul Burns
Date Deposited:	14 Mar 2018 12:35
Last Modified:	19 Nov 2019 09:51
URI:	http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/33735

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