Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Davies, Nicholas G., Abbott, Sam, Barnard, Rosanna C., Jarvis, Christopher I., Kucharski, Adam J., Munday, James D., Pearson, Carl A. B., Russell, Timothy W., Tully, Damien C., Washburne, Alex D., Wenseleers, Tom, Gimma, Amy, Waites, William, Wong, Kerry L. M., van Zandvoort, Kevin, Silverman, Justin D., Diaz-Ordaz, Karla, Keogh, Ruth, Eggo, Rosalind M., Funk, Sebastian, Jit, Mark, Atkins, Katherine E., Edmunds, W. John, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, , COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, , Bashton, Matthew, Smith, Darren, Young, Greg and Nelson, Andrew (2021) Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science, 372 (6538). eabg3055. ISSN 0036-8075

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Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The UK variant B.1.1.7 (also known as VOC 202012/01) has many mutations that alter virus attachment and entry into human cells. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, Davies et al. characterized the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in the United Kingdom. The authors found that the variant is 43 to 90% more transmissible than the predecessor lineage but saw no clear evidence for a change in disease severity, although enhanced transmission will lead to higher incidence and more hospital admissions. Large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur after the easing of control measures, and it may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to control the epidemic.

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