Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: A case study of an onshore wind project

Mohamed, Emad, Gerami Seresht, Nima, Hague, Stephen, Chehouri, Adam and AbouRizk, Simaan M. (2022) Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: A case study of an onshore wind project. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 49 (5). pp. 770-782. ISSN 0315-1468

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Abstract

Although many quantitative risk assessment models have been proposed in literature, their use in construction practice remain limited due to a lack of domain-specific models, tools, and application examples. This is especially true in wind farm construction, where the state-of-the-art integrated Monte Carlo simulation and critical path method (MCS-CPM) risk assessment approach has yet to be demonstrated. The present case study is the first reported application of the MCS-CPM method for risk assessment in wind farm construction and is the first case study to consider correlations between cost and schedule impacts of risk factors using copulas. MCS-CPM provided reasonable risk assessment results for a wind farm project, and its use in practice is recommended. Aimed at facilitating the practical application of quantitative risk assessment methods, this case study provides a much-needed analytical generalization of MCS-CPM, offering application examples, discussion of expected results, and recommendations to wind farm construction practitioners.

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