Modeling the Geomagnetic Response to the September 2017 Space Weather Event Over Fennoscandia Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework: Studying the Impacts of Spatial Resolution

Dimmock, A. P., Welling, D. T., Rosenqvist, L., Forsyth, C., Freeman, M. P., Rae, Jonathan, Viljanen, A., Vandegriff, E., Boynton, R. J., Balikhin, M. A. and Yordanova, E. (2021) Modeling the Geomagnetic Response to the September 2017 Space Weather Event Over Fennoscandia Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework: Studying the Impacts of Spatial Resolution. Space Weather, 19 (5). e2020SW002683. ISSN 1542-7390

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We must be able to predict and mitigate against geomagnetically induced current (GIC) effects to minimize socio-economic impacts. This study employs the space weather modeling framework (SWMF) to model the geomagnetic response over Fennoscandia to the September 7–8, 2017 event. Of key importance to this study is the effects of spatial resolution in terms of regional forecasts and improved GIC modeling results. Therefore, we ran the model at comparatively low, medium, and high spatial resolutions. The virtual magnetometers from each model run are compared with observations from the IMAGE magnetometer network across various latitudes and over regional-scales. The virtual magnetometer data from the SWMF are coupled with a local ground conductivity model which is used to calculate the geoelectric field and estimate GICs in a Finnish natural gas pipeline. This investigation has lead to several important results in which higher resolution yielded: (1) more realistic amplitudes and timings of GICs, (2) higher amplitude geomagnetic disturbances across latitudes, and (3) increased regional variations in terms of differences between stations. Despite this, substorms remain a significant challenge to surface magnetic field prediction from global magnetohydrodynamic modeling. For example, in the presence of multiple large substorms, the associated large-amplitude depressions were not captured, which caused the largest model-data deviations. The results from this work are of key importance to both modelers and space weather operators. Particularly when the goal is to obtain improved regional forecasts of geomagnetic disturbances and/or more realistic estimates of the geoelectric field.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding information: A. P. Dimmock, E. Yordanova, and L. Rosenqvist were funded by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency Grant 2016-2102. The work by A. Viljanen was supported by the Academy of Finland grant no. 314670. R. J. Boynton has received financial support from the UK NERC under grant NE/P017061/1. D. T. Welling was supported by the National Science Foundation award ICER-1663770. I. J. Rae and C. Forsyth are supported in part by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grants NE/P017150/1 and NE/V002724/1. C. Forsyth is supported by a NERC Independent Research Fellowship NE/N014480/1. We thank the institutes that maintain the IMAGE Magnetometer Array: Tromsø Geophysical Observatory of UiT the Arctic University of Norway (Norway), Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland), Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences (Poland), GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (Germany), Geological Survey of Sweden (Sweden), Swedish Institute of Space Physics (Sweden), Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory of the University of Oulu (Finland), and Polar Geophysical Institute (Russia).
Subjects: F500 Astronomy
F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences
Department: Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering
Depositing User: Elena Carlaw
Date Deposited: 04 Aug 2021 15:08
Last Modified: 04 Aug 2021 15:15

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