Sun, Sainan, Pattyn, Frank, Simon, Erika G., Albrecht, Torsten, Cornford, Stephen, Calov, Reinhard, Dumas, Christophe, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Kazmierczak, Elise, Kleiner, Thomas, Leguy, Gunter R., Lipscomb, William H., Martin, Daniel, Morlighem, Mathieu, Nowicki, Sophie, Pollard, David, Price, Stephen, Quiquet, Aurélien, Seroussi, Hélène, Schlemm, Tanja, Sutter, Johannes, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., Winkelmann, Ricarda and Zhang, Tong (2020) Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP). Journal of Glaciology, 66 (260). pp. 891-904. ISSN 0022-1430
|
Text
div-class-title-antarctic-ice-sheet-response-to-sudden-and-sustained-ice-shelf-collapse-abumip-div.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the 'end-member' scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1-12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91-5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Funding Information: We thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) effort, which provided support for ISMIP6 through sponsoring of workshops, hosting the ISMIP6 website and wiki, and promoted ISMIP6. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP5 and CMIP6. We thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the CMIP data and providing access, the University at Buffalo for ISMIP6 data distribution and upload, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP5 and CMIP6 and ESGF. Support for Matthew Hoffman, Stephen Price and Tong Zhang was provided through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) programme funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Advanced Scientific Computing Research and Biological and Environmental Research Programs. MALI simulations used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, a DOE Office of Science user facility supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. Ralf Greve was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI grant numbers JP16H02224, JP17H06104 and JP17H06323. Support for Mathieu Morlighem was provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF: Grant 1739031). The work of Thomas Kleiner has been conducted in the framework of the PalMod project (FKZ: 01LP1511B), supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as Research for Sustainability initiative (FONA). Reinhard Calov was funded by the PalMod project (PalMod 1.1 and 1.3 with grants 01LP1502C and 01LP1504D) of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Johannes Sutter has been funded via the AWI Strategy Fund and the regional climate initiative REKLIM. Tanja Schlemm is funded by a doctoral stipend granted by the Heinrich Böll Foundation. Torsten Albrecht has been funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) in the framework of the priority programme ‘Antarctic Research with comparative investigations in Arctic ice areas’ by grant WI4556/2-1 and WI4556/4-1. Hélène Seroussi, Erika Simon and Sophie Nowicki were supported by grants from NASA Cryospheric Science and Modeling, Analysis, Predictions Programs. Computing resources supporting ISSM simulations were provided by the NASA High-End Computing Program through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division at Ames Research Center. Gunter Leguy and William Lipscomb were supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources supporting CISM, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (doi:10.5065/D6RX99HX), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR. Heiko Goelzer has received funding from the programme of the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC), financially supported by the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW) under grant no. 024.002.001. This research forms part of the MIMO project within the STEREO III programme of the Belgian Science Policy Office, contract SR/00/336. IGE-Elmer/Ice simulations were performed using HPC resources from GENCI-CINES (grant 2018-016066) and using the Froggy platform of the CIMENT infrastructure, which is supported by the Rhone-Alpes region (grant CPER07_13 CIRA), the OSUG@2020 laBex (reference ANR10 LABX56) and the Equip@Meso project (referenceANR-10-EQPX-29-01). Nicholas R. Golledge acknowledges funding from Royal Society of New Zealand grant RDF-VUW1501. This is ISMIP6 contribution 14. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Antarctic glaciology, ice shelves, ice-sheet modelling |
| Subjects: | F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences F900 Others in Physical Sciences |
| Department: | Faculties > Engineering and Environment > Geography and Environmental Sciences |
| Depositing User: | Rachel Branson |
| Date Deposited: | 16 Sep 2021 14:30 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Sep 2021 14:45 |
| URI: | http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47228 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
