The Gulf Cooperation Council : measuring past performance and future prospects

Al-Kindi Al-Murar, Taher (2001) The Gulf Cooperation Council : measuring past performance and future prospects. Doctoral thesis, University of Northumbria at Newcastle.

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Abstract

This research is based on an economic analysis of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), formed in 1981 by six Arab Gulf states: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the UAE. The research has aimed to address and then find answers to the following two interrelated questions. First, whether there has been any significant improvement in the performance of these economies since the formation of the GCC. Second, using econometric estimation and forecasting techniques, the research examines whether the overall evidence are indicative of any positive moves towards full economic integration. Based on the main characteristics of these economies, the research has built a simple but applicable model of the customs union for the GCC. The findings derived from the estimated econometric models and our forecasts are generally statistically meaningful and stable. As the fmdings suggest diversification, industrialisation and general economic innovations have been
rather limited in the GCC over the past two decades. Successful economic integration rests primarily upon the idea of trade complementarity and evidence of scale economies, both of which shown to have been limited and growing slowly. In short, it can be concluded that due to a whole host of problematic issues, it is rather unlikely to assume dramatic changes to take place over the next few years. It is concluded that the best the GCC can come up with is to set up its common external tariff in line with the WTO recommendation as effectively as possible.

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