Public-private partnerships: A dynamic discrete choice model for road projects

Zhao, Jianfeng, Liu, Henry, Love, Peter E.D., Greenwood, David and Sing, Michael C.P. (2022) Public-private partnerships: A dynamic discrete choice model for road projects. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 82 (Part A). p. 101227. ISSN 0038-0121

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Abstract

Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are an effective vehicle for delivering critical infrastructure worldwide, particularly road transport assets (e.g., bridges, toll roads and tunnels). However, PPPs have been and continue to be controversial forms of project delivery as there are concerns about their ability to provide taxpayers with value for money (VfM). Current practice to determine VfM focuses on a ‘simplistic’ ex-ante evaluation referred to as the Public Sector Comparator (PSC), aiming to take a life-cycle approach to cost and benefits assessment. However, the complexity of transport projects renders the PSC ineffective and static evaluation of cost and benefits across their life-cycle. Therefore, the PSC cannot accommodate a project's environment's dynamic and changing nature. Acknowledging the limitations of the PSC, we develop and examine a dynamic discrete choice model that can be used to provide a VfM assessment for ‘road projects’. By validating the proposed model using two illustrative cases, the results suggest it can capture a more comprehensive assessment of cost components, functionality, and benefits specific to road projects and quantify the relationship between the consideration of different assessment elements and choice utility. Therefore, utilising the new model to assess VfM can enable policymakers to make more informed decisions about the employment of PPPs.

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